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Thursday, November 7, 2024

Symphony in Moscow Major by Wagner

This is a synopsis of what happened during Wagner's March of Justice's 900-kilometer journey to Moscow during the 24-hour-long Wagner's Rebellion

Wagner’s Symphony in the Making

Introduction

This is a synopsis of what happened during Wagner’s March of Justice’s 900-kilometer journey to Moscow during the 24-hour-long Wagner’s Rebellion. Everybody around the globe is probably asking why this happened by this point. Was it a PSYOP? Was there a true coup? Yevgeny Prigozhin himself claims that it was a form of armed protest of PMC Wagner, which was set to be dissolved on July 1st, 2023 owing to political intrigue. However, Prigozhin’s assertion on the night of the Insurrection raised a question in my mind-“Our commander was behind the whole operation, he’s the best strategist in the world, Dimitri Utkin”. More on that later.

I. Wagner’s Rise as an Army

But why would Russia wish to dissolve Wagner? As they flew from one Victory to another, rumors and ideas began to circulate. The Russian successes at Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk were made possible by Wagner’s victory in the pivotal battle of Papasana, which they also won in Ukraine.

Recruitment Drive

However, Prigozhin soon realized that his PMC was constrained by manpower and that more troops would be required. So they began jail recruitment in July 2022, but only 300 inmates had joined by the end of the summer. And it wasn’t until September and November that Wagner really ramped up its recruitment drive. Because they did not anticipate many prisoners enlisting, the Russian government first allowed Wagner to do what they pleased. But pause for a moment and consider this: Within a few months, Wagner moved from having around 8,000 fighters to a startling 50,000.

Tensions between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense

Wagner transformed into an army and ceased to be a tiny PMC. The Russian Ministry of Defense suddenly realized that things were out of control, and tensions continued to rise after that. They were probably afraid that Prigozhin would demand money from them or march on Moscow if they didn’t perform this or that for him. It is also reasonable to believe that Prigozhin must have had the seed of this idea before the problems in the field began to show up and that he prepared this specific action as a last resort. All of this ultimately devolved into Prigozhin and Shoigu’s personal feud.

II. The Uprising Unfolds

1. Wagner’s Symphony begins

The Russian Ministry of Defense intended to demonstrate its supremacy to remind Prigozhin who is the actual boss since Wagner was winning the Battle of Bakhmut on its own. The first strike took place in February 2023 when the Russian government forbade Wagner from recruiting in jails. They might have been concerned that Wagner would amass an army of 100,000 soldiers, but this wasn’t sufficient because Wagner kept succeeding. We can only assume that this is when the Ministry of Defense began occasionally delaying the supply of ammunition. The Russian High Command had been reforming the entire Army for months prior to that time, and they had taken notice of the Wagner group’s efficiency.

2. Desires, Wishes, and Plans

The Russian HQ, I assume, did not want an elite battle Corps to hoard all the talent and knowledge for themselves, nor did they want a situation similar to the Waffen SS operating within the Wehrmacht. Instead, they wanted all the regiments to be of high quality, so they attached skilled Wagner assault detachments to them. That’s where the concept of disassembling Wagner must have first materialized in the late spring, allowing the Russian Ministry of Defense to accomplish two goals at once. You’ll decrease the possibility of Wagner staging a coup and raise the standard of Russian regiments overall at the same time. However, let’s return to the timeframe of this rebellion, uprising, mutiny, or whatever it was before we go further down the rabbit hole.

III. Wagner’s Symphony begins

It all began with an alleged Russian missile attack on Wagner’s base, which resulted in the supposed deaths of 30 Wagner personnel. To be honest, the released footage did not give me much confidence because all I could see were a few burned shrubs in the middle of a forest. The citizens of Rostov then awoke to see a number of Wagner red Z tanks in the heart of the city. When one of Wagner’s columns arrived at the airstrip to the east of Rostov, it was captured on camera and observed that they were armed with Pantsir air defense systems. Wagner seized command of the Southern Front’s Rostov headquarters without firing a shot. Prigozhin was heard saying, in essence, “We’ll go to Moscow until we get the chief of the general staff and Shoigu” in an abruptly released video involving Yevkurov, the deputy head of the main directorate of the general staff, General Vladimir Alekseev, and Prigozhin.

1. Wagner’s Advance and Response

The rebellion, however, also produced its fair share of memes, such as the graduation photo of the girl with the Wagner T90s in the backdrop. Meanwhile, columns of Wagner soldiers in light armor advanced north. They were initially discovered in Pavlovsk, a tiny village south of Voronezh, a large city. Videos showed more than 20 military trucks and buses, including armored vehicles, and even a video of a tank on the trailer began to circulate online. My estimation is that there were 200 to 250 Wagner rebels in this convoy. They continued moving north in convoys for another 100 kilometers before being stopped by the military police of Voronezh. They were then forced to bypass the city and take a detour of 250 kilometers via the Lipetsk region before returning to the main highway north of Voronezh.

Wagner Advance
wagner

2. Total number of involved Wagner Forces

The total number of vehicles and people in the convoy is unknown. Prigozhin claimed that 25 000 of his men participated in the march on Moscow, but on the ground, witnesses report seeing 150 pieces of equipment, 400 pieces in four different columns, or perhaps the same column four times. I believe it was closer to 150 vehicles, which would mean that there were about 1500 Wagner members involved in this operation, plus perhaps a few hundred in Rostov, meaning that more than 20 000 “musicians of the orchestra” did not participate in this armed protest. This conclusion is just an educated estimate based on utter confusion that perplexed and surprised not only those in Russia but everyone in the world.

3. Plot thickens

In retrospect, we can now know that they simply raced along highways at full speed, tanks and some infantry vehicles were transported on trailers, none of the cities they pass through were occupied in any way, and they were actually bypassed when expecting even the slightest resistance, so none of this would indicate the preparation of a coup, and it appears Prigozhin simply wanted to be heard by Putin. However, involving tanks and machine weapons in your demonstration might develop pretty rapidly. And he didn’t wait too long, Putin addressed the public, declaring that the country is facing treason, and, according to some reports, evacuated his entire cabinet to an unidentified destination at that point.

Overall reaction to Wagner

At this time, prominent individuals like General Alekseev and General Surovikin recorded recordings pleading with Prigozhin to stop and express their support for the president. Overall, the public supported President Putin wholeheartedly, and many people began ripping down Wagner’s recruitment posters. To stop PMC Wagner’s advance in the countryside, tractors made craters in the roads, while others used their trucks to erect barricades. However, PMC managed to get through one of these civilian checkpoints, making it evident that there was little to no fighting taking place as they advanced toward Moscow. The Wagner columns appeared to be targeted by Russian aircraft, and to everyone’s amazement, Wagner fired back at these helicopters and airplanes.

Counter-moves to Wagner’s action

Due to the PMC’s proximity to Moscow—just 300 kilometers to the south—Russian law enforcement agencies began setting up shops near the Oka River. Due to the limited number of crossing points, they even destroyed the bridge at Kalona just in case. They also built fast entrenchments in case of a conflict. Mercenaries were lazing around in Rostov, Russia, in the meantime. In response, the Russian authorities dispatched some Chechens from Ahmat detachments in the direction of Rostov. Hundreds of Chechen vehicles were positioned and ready to act. The rebels were to be encircled and the city was to be captured in a pincer from north and east. Without appropriate logistics, the Wagner PMC would have had to storm the bridges across the Oka River to get to Moscow and possibly start a gunfight with the Chechens in Rostov.

IV. Wagner’s Symphony Crescendo

Wagner was obviously up against the clock. In the meantime, Prigozhin was undoubtedly horrified and persuaded by the president’s speech about treason and the downing of Russian military aircraft that his operation was going too far and that they would lose anyway without Putin’s backing. And then, on Saturday, June 24, around 9 p.m., just as everyone was getting ready for yet another sleepless night, Wagner decided to put an end to the uprising by mediating with Belarus’ president Lukashenko. Prigozhin then gave the order for his columns to return to the camps so that no more Russian blood would be shed.

Strike and Counterstrike

When allegedly seven Russian planes were shot down by Wagner’s air defense, it was simple for Prigozhin to make that statement. We’re talking about roughly 13 KIA, so either the Russians took Maskirovka to a whole new level, or it wasn’t a PSYOP at all. Many political analysts asserted that the resolution of this mutiny could not have been achieved without secret negotiations, some sort of agreement, and the confirmation of some rumors and possibilities have seen the light almost instantly, the first of which was that the criminal case against Prigozhin would be dropped and Wagner PMC fighters would receive immunity.

1. Rumors about Wagner’s action start

Another rumor suggested that Gerasimov and Shoigu will step down and Dyumin, the current governor of Tula, would succeed Shoigu as defense minister. Strangely enough, videos of Dyumin appearing in which he is flanked by members of the Russian Armed Forces began to circulate in the days after the mutiny. Because of his crucial involvement in the annexation of Crimea and, more crucially, because he served as the GRU’s former chief, the foreign military intelligence agency of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, he has great esteem in Russia.

2. Wagner and GRU Angle

The majority of Wagner’s commanders are also former GRU officers, which may be why Prigozhin remarked of the original Wagner, Dmitry Utkin, “Our commander was behind the whole operation, he is the best strategist in the world.” Utkin commanded the 700th Separate Special Detachment of the 2nd Separate Special Brigade of the GRU. And who else has served as the GRU’s previous leader? General Alekseev! Perhaps the entire uprising was a GRU and FSB power struggle. However, the most recent news indicates that Shoigu and Gerasimov are still in their positions.

3. Expectations VS Reality

Putin’s decision to fire his defense minister in the wake of such a revolt would be seen politically as a sign of weakness since it may trigger a chain reaction. The Russian government also couldn’t be too tough on the insurgents because PMC Wagner is still incredibly well-liked there because of the crucial part they played in the Battle of Bakhmut.

V. Integration of Wagner PMC into the Russian Armed Forces

Wagner PMC forces will be integrated and amalgamated into the Russian Armed Forces, at least based on what we currently know. Peskov had already disclosed that many Wagner soldiers had already signed contracts with the Ministry of Defense prior to the uprising. Additionally, it was said that Wagner personnel who took part in the mutiny would not be permitted to join the Russian military. Strange and interesting coincidence, given that Wagner was recently rumored to be actively seeking French and Arabic translators from abroad, we can infer that Wagner will be moved back abroad to fulfill its PMC responsibilities.

1. The Rumors and Speculations Around Wagner

According to the most recent rumors, a military camp for PMC Wagner is currently being built in Belarus, with the first camp, which would accommodate 8,000 personnel, supposedly being planned just 200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. To force Ukraine to send some much-needed forces there, Wagner may use this as a base for sabotage and infiltration missions across the border. Who knows how many Belarusians might have joined Wagner to increase their numbers, therefore in a way, Prigozhin’s Mutiny was partially successful because the nucleus of Wagner was not completely disbanded.

2. Similar issue Ukraine had

Something Poroshenko, the previous president of Ukraine, stated also caught my attention but I believe it was mostly overlooked. According to him, Ukraine experienced comparable issues between 2014 and 2016. Keep in mind that Ukraine had essentially no standing army during the early stages of the Donbas conflict, and numerous volunteers created their own battalions.  At this time, Ukrainian billionaires organized and financed their own armies, which grew ever more potent. Eventually, Poroshenko issued an order to fully subordinate all of these partially independent formations to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. As with the Wagner mutiny, it was carried out for political purposes.

VI. Restructuring

Regarding the Russian army’s restructuring, we have been hearing more and more in recent weeks about Russian Storm Zed units. Russian telegram indicated on June 19 that the introduction of the new, highly trained storm Z units had been a remarkable success south of Marinka. The Russian Storm Z Battalion reportedly captured a forest close to Makarivka on June 20. The same day, one of these Storm Z warriors who claimed to have never battled before was taken by the Ukrainians.

1. Wagner Effects in the Field

The ISW stated once more on June 20th that “the recent commitment of Storm Z units to the Harkiv-Lughansk front line probably explains the increased number of attacks reported near Kremina over the previous few days”. As it appears, Russian troops have committed a sizable number of low-quality personnel to frontal infantry attacks. Additionally, Ukrainians said that Z storm troops had been attempting to storm Ukrainian Armed Forces positions close to Kupiansk.

2. Wagner-Storm Z?

What exactly are these Storm Z units? It was essentially a duplicate of Wagner’s assault detachments as the Russian Ministry of Defense recruited in jails after Wagner was forbidden from doing so. On May 31, it was reported that the State Duma would approve the recruitment of prisoners in the Russian Army during the conflict. The worst bargain I’ve ever seen signed, according to the Moscow Times, is that recruited inmates would only be released from service at the end of the war, in contrast to Wagner’s six-month contracts.

3. Disappointment

Unsurprisingly, just 2 000 people have enlisted so far, according to some reports. The Ministry of Defense allegedly recruited 15,000 prisoners, according to a Russian newspaper, thus this number may really be understated. While the Russians insist that they are elite units, the Ukrainians contend that they are subpar soldiers. In order to construct Storm Zed assault battalions, I think prisoners and new recruits are joined with more seasoned soldiers, and here is where the Ministry of Defense presumably had Wagner in mind.

VII. Conclusion-What’s next with Wagner?

Since we can assume that by signing contracts with the Ministry of Defense, Wagner troops would join these Storm Z groups and essentially teach Russian forces, at least some of these soldiers may be former Wagner. But based on what I’ve read, the major objective was to disperse them across the front, teach the rest of the Russian forces their new strategies, and implement them in each regiment. These assault detachments, either companies or battalions, will then be assigned to each Russian regiment to bolster their offensive capabilities in a coordinated effort.

1. What actually happened?

To summarize, I believe no one on the planet really fully comprehends what occurred and why. There are many unsolved issues about the nature of the rebellion, who was involved, and what the final terms of the amnesty were. Also, what will happen next? Based on what we saw, I’d conclude that Wagner’s attempt had little chance of actually taking Moscow, and even less of forcefully overturning the Russian government unless more of the security services were ready to join them at some point. But that doesn’t mean the whole affair is without significant impact.

2. Impact and Uncertainty

If Russian narratives are undermined, if stability is jeopardized, if equipment must be repurposed for Rosgvardiya rather than the regular military, or if purges and distrust weaken the regular army, the ultimate beneficiaries of this entire affair will most likely be Ukraine, not Prigozhin, Putin, or any member of the Russian elite. However, the road ahead is fraught with uncertainty. We don’t know who will be purged, who will be questioned, or whether a mild approach will be taken in the end. As a result, I believe everyone will have to keep a close eye on this.

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