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Thursday, November 7, 2024

Day 566-Russia’s Tactics & Wagner Group

Because of the fog of war and confirmation of information from such a hectic place as a battlefield, information in this article is for the previous day of the day it was published.

Report for 12.09.2023.

In this daily Ukraine update, we’ll delve deep into the latest developments regarding Russia’s tactics and troop movements in Ukraine. We’ll explore the potential resurgence of the Wagner group, a shadowy paramilitary organization, and how it might impact the ongoing conflict. As we dissect the combat map and analyze strategic shifts, the complex nature of the situation becomes increasingly apparent.

Introduction

In recent days, Russia’s actions in Ukraine have been marked by significant developments, both on the ground and politically. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the evolving situation, we will explore various aspects, beginning with changes on the combat map.

The Combat Map: Changes and Shifts

Klishchiivka-Changes and Shifts
Klishchiivka-Changes and Shifts

Klishchiivka: A Notable Change

The combat map is not static, providing valuable insights into the evolving situation. One notable change is occurring in Klishchiivka, where the 83rd Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade, a formidable VDV (airborne) unit, is making tactical adjustments.

  • 83rd Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade: This VDV unit’s withdrawal suggests a deliberate shift in Russia’s strategy in the region. The VDV is known for its high-level training and capabilities, making its actions in Klishchiivka particularly noteworthy.

The fact that this unit is repositioning indicates that Russia is reconsidering its defense lines, potentially realigning its forces to reinforce key positions elsewhere.

Klishchiivka’s Liberation

Ukrainian forces are in the process of clearing the remainder of Klishchiivka, a clear indication of their determination to gain control over this strategically significant area. While not officially declared liberated, it is increasingly likely that the majority of the village will soon be under Ukrainian control.

Additional Insight

Recent information indicates that the 83rd Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade’s withdrawal from Klishchiivka aligns with Russia’s broader strategy of creating defensive lines behind natural barriers. This tactical adjustment aims to enhance the defensibility of certain areas, possibly in anticipation of Ukrainian offensives.

Andriivka: Russian Forces Withdraw?

Another intriguing development is the possibility of Russian forces withdrawing from Andriivka, a location where they are currently facing fire from multiple directions.

  • Strategic Withdrawal: The potential withdrawal of Russian forces from Andriivka suggests that they are reevaluating their position. With enemy fire coming from the north, south, and west, it’s clear that remaining in this exposed position is unsustainable.

A strategic withdrawal could mean repositioning behind natural obstacles or using cleared areas between rail lines to create fortified positions. This move reflects the dynamic nature of warfare in this region.

Additional Insight

Reports from the ground indicate that Russian forces in Andriivka are indeed feeling the pressure from Ukrainian advances. The tactical situation favors Ukraine, as they can leverage their positions to cut off potential escape routes for Russian units in the area. This puts Russia in a challenging position as they seek to avoid further losses.

Frontline Advancements and Strategic Moves

Progress in Robotyne-Verbove direction
Progress in Robotyne-Verbove direction

Progress in Robotyne-Verbove direction

Advancements on the frontline are indicative of Ukraine’s determination to push forward. Ukrainian forces are making significant progress south, a critical move in their quest to liberate Novoprokopivka.

  • Strategic Importance: The progress towards Melitopol is strategically significant for several reasons. It signals Ukraine’s intent to encircle Novoprokopivka and puts pressure on Russian defenders in the area.

Moreover, this advancement positions Ukrainian forces along Novoprokopivka’s flanks, creating opportunities for tactical maneuvering.

  • Support-by-Fire Positions: Ukrainian forces are in the process of establishing support-by-fire positions in the forested area. This positioning serves multiple purposes, including providing cover for mortar and direct weapon fire into Novoprokopivka and allowing forces to assemble and prepare for assaults.
  • Flanking Strategy: The forested area also enables Ukrainian forces to flank Russian positions effectively. This classic “fix and flank” tactic is crucial in exerting maximum pressure on Russian defenders.

Additional Insight

The forested area that Ukrainian forces are advancing into has its share of challenges. Reports suggest that this region is heavily mined, adding another layer of complexity to the operation. Ukrainian forces must navigate this hazardous terrain while simultaneously applying pressure to Russian positions.

Russian Counterattacks: Disrupting Ukrainian Gains

Russian counterattacks have been a recurring theme in this conflict. These counterattacks aim to disrupt Ukrainian advancements and maintain pressure on key areas, such as the main supply route to Robotyne.

  • Counterattack Pace: Russian forces have launched approximately 30 counterattacks in recent days. This consistent pace suggests a deliberate effort to push back against Ukrainian gains.
  • Strategic Focus: Russian counterattacks appear to focus on the western side of Robotyne-Verbove breach, particularly in the direction of Kopani. By doing so, Russia aims to apply pressure to the main supply road, potentially disrupting Ukrainian resupply efforts.

Additional Insight

The frequency of Russian counterattacks underscores their commitment to retaining control over strategic areas. While these counterattacks can be resource-intensive, Russia seems determined to contest Ukrainian advances. The situation is fluid, with both sides continuously adapting to changing circumstances.

Verbove: Who’s in Charge?

The situation in Verbove remains fluid and challenging to decipher. Ukrainian forces continue to push forward, while Russian forces respond with counterattacks. The critical question revolves around who holds the upper hand in this contentious area.

  • Unclear Leadership: Verbove is a hotspot where it’s unclear who is in charge at any given moment. Ukrainian forces are determined to make gains, while Russian forces attempt to thwart their progress.
  • Russian Defensive Strategy: A notable aspect is the composition of Russian forces in Verbove. It appears that Russia basically has just one reconnaissance battalion with some support elements (417th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion and 11th Squad BARS) but is committing a substantial number of units in Novoprokopivka, including the 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment, and 210th Motorized Rifle Regiment units, along with additional forces from support elements (14th Squad BARS), to this relatively small area. This concentration suggests a significant defensive effort in Novoprokopivka but also raises questions about Russia’s broader strategy.

Additional Insight

Verbove and Novoprokopivka’s strategic importance cannot be overstated. This area is a key battleground that could impact the broader conflict. The sheer concentration of Russian forces suggests that they are determined to hold Novoprokopivka at all costs, potentially making it a pivotal location in the ongoing conflict.

Recruitment and the Wagner Group

The potential resurgence of the Wagner group, a shadowy paramilitary organization known for its involvement in various conflicts, has caught the attention of many observers. Understanding the implications of recruiting former Wagner fighters into official Russian military structures is essential.

  • Wagner Group’s Checkered History: The Wagner group has a complex history of involvement in various conflicts. Known for its combat effectiveness, it has also been a source of concern for the Russian government due to its loyalty to private interests.

Additional Insight

Reports suggest that the Rosgvardia has been actively recruiting former fighters. This recruitment drive aims to integrate Wagner elements into the Russian military’s official chain of command, potentially aligning their loyalty with the government’s interests.

The Loyalty Conundrum

Recruiting former Wagner fighters into the Rosgvardia, a Ministry of Interior troops unit, presents a unique challenge. These fighters may retain their loyalty to the Wagner group, and integrating them could bypass their opposition to the Ministry of Defense.

  • Loyalty Dynamics: Loyalty among combat veterans is a complex and enduring phenomenon. The experiences shared in combat create strong bonds that can persist long after service ends.
  • Disenfranchisement Mitigation: Integrating former Wagner fighters could prevent them from becoming disenfranchised by the government. This could help avoid potential security risks posed by highly trained, disgruntled fighters.

Additional Insight

One source within Russia has claimed that ex-Wagner Fighters are serving in Rosgvardia units, including those with no conventional military experience. This adds an interesting dimension to the recruitment process, as it includes individuals from diverse backgrounds, potentially enriching the unit’s capabilities.

Russian Elections: A Foregone Conclusion

Recent local elections in Russia and Occupied Ukrainian regions have raised eyebrows, with Vladimir Putin and his endorsed candidates securing overwhelming victories. While the façade of a multi-party democracy is maintained, the reality is one of Putin’s control over elections and opposition.

  • Political Landscape: Putin’s United Russia party secured a staggering 83 percent of the vote in occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia. This result is particularly remarkable given the absence of a significant ethnic Russian population in the region.
  • Opposition Facade: Despite the appearance of multiple parties and opposition candidates, the truth is that Putin’s control over elections ensures predetermined outcomes.

Additional Insight

The elections in Russia serve as a reminder of the country’s political landscape. Putin’s firm grip on power and the electoral process leaves little room for genuine opposition. These elections reinforce the notion that Putin’s rule remains unchallenged within Russia’s borders.

Conclusion

In this extensive daily Ukraine update, we have delved deep into Russia’s evolving strategy, tactical adjustments, and potential challenges related to the Wagner group. The complex dynamics of this ongoing conflict continue to shape its trajectory, making it essential to stay informed about the latest developments. As the situation unfolds, we will provide further insights into the ever-changing landscape of the Ukraine crisis.

Stay informed, stay vigilant!

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